At the season’s halfway point, the race is wide open. Here are the under-the-radar contenders who could steal college football’s most prestigious award.

Photo by gohuskies.com

The 2025 Heisman Trophy race has been defined by one overwhelming characteristic: chaos. None of the top five Heisman favorites after the first four weeks were among the favorites before Week 1. Preseason favorite Arch Manning is now at 80-1 at BetMGM following a rough start to the season, while other preseason contenders like Clemson’s Cade Klubnik and South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers have similarly fallen from grace.

Carson Beck and Ty Simpson are currently co-favorites at BetMGM, each with a 22.2% implied probability, but the race remains remarkably fluid. Which means this is the perfect time for a dark horse to emerge and capture voters’ imagination.

Here are six candidates flying under the radar who could ultimately hoist the bronze statue in December.

1. Demond Williams Jr., QB, Washington

Current odds: +3000 at BetMGM
The case: The most undervalued player in college football

If you haven’t been paying attention to Washington football, you missed one of the most electrifying individual performances of the 2025 season. Against Rutgers on October 10, Williams threw for 402 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 136 yards and two more scores—becoming just the 16th quarterback in FBS history to post 400+ passing yards and 100+ rushing yards in the same game.

His 538 total yards broke Washington’s single-game total offense record, previously held by Michael Penix Jr. For context, the last quarterback to accomplish a similar feat—400+ passing and 140+ non-sack rushing yards—was Lamar Jackson in 2016. Jackson won the Heisman that year.

Through six games, Williams has completed 74.1% of his passes for 1,628 yards, 10 touchdowns and just one interception, while adding 382 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Among the top 14 Heisman candidates, Williams ranks first in total yards, second in completion percentage, tied for first in fewest interceptions, and tied for second in yards per attempt.

The only thing holding him back? Touchdown totals. But if Washington continues to win—and Williams keeps producing 500+ yard games—voters will have no choice but to take notice. With games remaining against Michigan, Illinois, and Oregon, the stage is set for a late-season surge.

Bottom line: Williams has the efficiency, the production, and now the marquee moment. If the Huskies finish 9-3 or better, he’ll be in New York.

2. Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss

Current odds: +2000 at BetMGM
The case: College football’s ultimate Cinderella story

Chambliss is a Division II transfer who won the DII national championship and finished as a finalist for the Harlon Hill Trophy—the Division II Heisman. Now playing for Lane Kiffin’s high-octane offense, he’s proving that talent can come from anywhere.

Since taking over as starter against Arkansas, Chambliss has won three games, including a victory over then-No. 4 LSU, completing 64% of his passes and accounting for 1,219 total yards and six total touchdowns. His dual-threat ability fits perfectly in Kiffin’s system, and Ole Miss still has road trips against Georgia and Oklahoma remaining on the schedule.

The narrative writes itself: A Division II champion transfers up, proves doubters wrong, and leads a top-10 team to the College Football Playoff. If Ole Miss keeps winning—especially if they upset Georgia this weekend—Chambliss will become impossible to ignore.

Bottom line: The story is too good. If Ole Miss finishes 10-2 or 11-1, Chambliss crashes the Heisman ceremony.

3. Ahmad Hardy, RB, Missouri

Current odds: Not widely listed (estimated +5000)
The case: The best running back you’ve never heard of

Hardy leads the FBS in rushing yards (730) and touchdowns (9), has Missouri at 5-0, and has rushed for over 100 yards and scored a touchdown in every game. He transferred from UL Monroe and has picked up exactly where he left off last season when he was one of the nation’s most productive backs.

The problem? 20 of the last 25 Heisman winners have played quarterback—80% of 21st century winners. Derrick Henry was the last running back to win the award in 2015, and Ashton Jeanty narrowly missed last year despite historic production.

But Hardy has something Jeanty didn’t: He plays in the SEC. If Missouri keeps winning and Hardy keeps dominating, he could be the first SEC running back since Henry to claim the trophy. With games against Alabama, Oklahoma, and Texas A&M still on the schedule, Hardy will have ample opportunity to prove he’s the nation’s most valuable player.

Bottom line: Running backs face an uphill battle, but if anyone can buck the trend, it’s an SEC back averaging 146 yards per game on an undefeated team.

4. Diego Pavia, QB, Vanderbilt

Current odds: Not widely listed
The case: Leading the most improbable turnaround in college football

Pavia has led Vanderbilt to a 5-1 start, throwing for 890 yards and eight touchdowns while rushing for 215 yards and another score. More importantly, he’s led the Commodores to four consecutive wins by double digits and positioned them as legitimate College Football Playoff contenders.

Vanderbilt. In the playoff. Read that sentence again.

The Commodores’ remaining schedule is brutal—LSU, Missouri, and Texas all loom—but that’s exactly what Pavia needs. If Vanderbilt pulls off even two of those upsets and finishes 8-4 or better while securing a spot in a New Year’s Six bowl, Pavia’s underdog narrative becomes irresistible.

Last year’s 40-35 upset of Alabama wasn’t a fluke. This is a program transformation, and Pavia is the architect. He’s already declared that Vanderbilt still has “national title aspirations,” and while that might seem far-fetched, so did the idea of Vanderbilt being ranked No. 17 in the country.

Bottom line: The ultimate underdog story. If Vandy finishes 9-3 with wins over ranked opponents, Pavia gets invited to New York purely on narrative.

5. Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

Current odds: Third at BetMGM (+450)
The case: Leading college football’s biggest surprise team

Mendoza was 21-of-23 passing for 267 yards with five touchdowns in just three quarters against Illinois, vaulting him to Heisman favorite status. The transfer from California has been remarkably efficient, leading the country with 14 touchdown passes through four games while completing 76.8% of his passes with zero interceptions.

Indiana is 4-0 and ranked for the first time in years. With Mateer’s injury, Mendoza’s odds moved from +900 as he became the new Heisman favorite at various sportsbooks, and for good reason. The Hoosiers’ offense is explosive, and Mendoza has been mistake-free.

The challenge? Indiana’s remaining schedule doesn’t offer many marquee opportunities. But if the Hoosiers stay undefeated or finish with just one loss, Mendoza will be a finalist. His head-to-head win over Oregon—where he outdueled Dante Moore in double overtime—gives him a signature victory that many other candidates lack.

Bottom line: Not really a dark horse anymore, but if you got him early at +900, congratulations. He’s a legitimate finalist.

6. Dante Moore, QB, Oregon

Current odds: +1700 at BetMGM
The case: Following in the footsteps of Oregon Heisman finalists

Moore is following in the footsteps of past Oregon quarterbacks, where the last two starters have finished third in Heisman voting. He’s been excellent for much of the season, throwing for 1,210 yards and 14 touchdowns to just one interception before a rough outing against Indiana.

Oregon could very well finish the season 11-1, with Moore still going to New York as a potential Heisman finalist. The Ducks remain one of the nation’s elite teams, and Moore’s efficiency—when he’s on—rivals anyone in the country.

The problem is recency bias. Moore’s performance against Indiana (186 passing yards, -27 rushing yards, 1 TD, 2 INT) combined with Oregon’s signature win at Penn State looking less impressive (the Nittany Lions are now winless in conference play) has caused his stock to plummet.

But there’s plenty of season left. If Oregon rebounds and Moore returns to his early-season form, he’ll be back in the thick of things. The Ducks have the platform, the winning record, and the tradition of producing Heisman finalists. All Moore needs is a few more signature performances.

Bottom line: One bad game doesn’t erase a season. If Oregon wins out, Moore finishes in the top five.

The X-Factors

A few other names to monitor as the season progresses:

John Mateer, QB, Oklahoma – The frontrunner before suffering a hand injury, Mateer started the season with 1,215 passing yards and six passing touchdowns while leading Oklahoma in rushing with 190 yards and five touchdowns. If he returns healthy and Oklahoma stays in the playoff race, he’s immediately back in contention.

CJ Carr, QB, Notre Dame – Carr has been a proficient operator with an 83.6 QBR, but he’s a flawed Heisman candidate because Notre Dame has already played and lost to its toughest opponents, and he accrues less credit for success than teammate Jeremiyah Love.

Byrum Brown, QB, South Florida – Brown emerged as a dark-horse contender after leading USF to upset wins over Boise State and Florida, establishing the Bulls as the top College Football Playoff contender outside the Power Four. History isn’t on his side—no Group of Five player has won since 1990—but Ashton Jeanty nearly broke through last year.

What It Means

The 2025 Heisman race is the most wide-open in recent memory. With traditional powers struggling and unexpected contenders emerging, this might be the year a true dark horse steals the show.

Demond Williams Jr. has the numbers and just needs the visibility. Trinidad Chambliss has the story. Ahmad Hardy has the production. Diego Pavia has the narrative of a lifetime.

One thing is certain: This race is far from over. And with half the season still to play, the eventual winner might not even be on most people’s radar yet.

Saturday afternoons in November are where legends are made. The question isn’t whether a dark horse will emerge—it’s which one will seize the moment.

---

Odds and statistics current as of October 16, 2025. Heisman Trophy ceremony scheduled for December 13, 2025.